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Institute of Public Finance

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Factor Model Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia

Davor Kunovac, Croatian National Bank, Zagreb, Croatia

This paper tests whether information derived from 144 economic variables (represented by only a few constructed factors) can be used for the forecasting of consumer prices in Croatia. The results obtained show that the use of one factor enhances the precision of the benchmark model's ability to forecast inflation. The methodology used is sufficiently general to be able to be applied directly for the forecasting of other economic variables.

Keywords:  factor models, time series analysis, inflation, forecasting

Year:  2007   |   Volume:  31   |   Issue:  4   |   Pages:  371 - 393

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 December, 2007
IV / 2007
EBSCO Publishing
ISSN 1846-887X
e-ISSN 1845-9757
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